The Redskins Brain

Big Changes

2010-05-17T01:28:00.000-07:00

Haven't collected my thoughts on here in a while, mostly because I was busy slamming my head into a table every time I watched a Skins game in 2009. I called Portis to swap concussion stories. He agreed mine were worse. Here's the offseason in fastforward.

Cerrato Fired
So many fans for so long called for the head of the inept "yes man" that directed Dan Snyder's fantasy team year after year. Could this be the start of change?
Zorn Fired
Poor guy. Not ready to be a head coach, put there by default, and given a terrible GM to work with and a terrible situation overall.

Don't look so surprised.
Shanahan in, Allen in
Wow, two good moves. First Shanahan took a season off to study the trends of the league and the habits of the most successful teams, then a solid personnel guy gets hired as GM. Oh and he has ties to Skins history.
Shanahan II in
#1 pass attack. Nice...
Campbell out, McNabb in
Campbell was at best a mediocre quarterback that didn't lose you that many games, but there were only a couple games he went out and won for us, and the last ones I remember were in 2007. McNabb on the other hands is a baller who I seem to remember winning two games against US just LAST YEAR. Hi DeSean Jackson. Don't forget to wave to Laron as you run by him. I'd rather have someone that might lose a game here and there through aggressive play but gets us to 5 NFC Championships and a Superbowl. Good luck in Oakland. :(
The Draft
Started with 4 picks, ended with 6 + McNabb and Jeremy Jarmon from supplemental draft last year. 3 of those 6 were o-linemen. What's more we selected an o-lineman in the first round for the first time since Chris Samuels in 2000. Oh and Samuels after retiring just happened to be the one to make the selection in New York for Mr. Trent Williams. Welcome and hail. Based on what they had to work with, Shanallen did a great job.
OTAs/Minicamps/Free Agency
I love how at the start of FA we cut 10 overpaid vets that didn't seem to produce all that much, then we invited/signed a bunch of people for minicamps that are probably going to make the minimum but work their asses off to make the team. Work ethic, tastes like sunshine. Wouldn't mind seeing Hunter the Punter (2009 Redskins MVP?) and Ethan Albright (long snapper king) make returns as they are both available free agents at this time. Hope Graham Gano shines and is the starting kicker. His leg > Suisham's by about 30 yards every kickoff.
Not that we scored enough to kickoff very often last year...

Fun With the Media Guide

2009-09-04T11:40:00.001-07:00

Was looking through the Redskins Media Guide for 2009 and found some interesting fun facts about JC17 for Redskins records:

Highest Passer Rating, Career:
#2, 80.4, 2005-2008
He's sandwiched between Sonny Jurgensen and Mark Rypien/Joe Theismann. Not a bad place to be.

Most passes competed, Season:
#2, 315, 2008
Just 1 completion behind Brad Johnson.

Most Passes Completed, Game:
#1, 33 passes vs Cowboys 11/18/07
I like this record. No. I LOVE it.

Highest Completion Percentage, Career (min 1000 att):
#1, 59.7%, 2005-2008

Most Consecutive Passes, Completed:
#2, 16, 09/14/08, 09/21/08

Most Consecutive Passes Attempted, No Interceptions
#1, 271, 2007-2008
Holds the lead by 109 passes over Theismann

JC17 also holds #1 for both Career and Season lowest percentage passes intercepted @ 2.0% career and 1.19% season (2008).

Only problem is he's not on any of the passing yards or passing TD top 3 lists. If he gets those two stats up without the others suffering, he'll be one of the best QBs our franchise has ever had.

Venetian Lines

2009-05-10T11:44:00.000-07:00

I almost forgot that the NFL win lines came in from the Venetian! My guesses were actually pretty good, I got 16 of them within half a win but only 4 exactly correct.

Hog wash or does hope float?

2009-05-10T10:23:00.000-07:00

No we're not sudsing up our motorcycles, making sure our '80s offensive linemen cleaned their hands, nor are we watching romance movies.

Last year our defense was pretty good. 4th in the NFL in total yardage, actually. Problemo numero uno? We were in a 3 way tie for 28th in the league in takeaways at 18. We picked up some significant help in the defense's pass rushing. We should have significantly higher QB pressure, which equates to more errant throws for more interceptions, more balls slapped out of QB hands, so more fumbles, and more penetration along the line for more sacks and more tackles behind the line on running backs. We're solid on defense, and we may just come close to the Steeler's defense in production.

Problemo numero dos? Well our defense wasn't why we went 8-8 last year (in a bad way), it was why we finished 8-8 with an offense 19th in total yardage and 28th in points. We could not have beaten Philly late in the year by putting up only 10 points if our defense wasn't stellar that day. Our offense sucks. Potential, yes, but as of the last 8 games last year, it's just terrible. My god we lost to Cincinatti and St. Louis. At least we played Detroit.

So please excuse me when I don't get giddy and bubbly when Zorn talks about how well our no-longer-rookie WRs are doing. And excuse me for not getting overexcited about all of our offensive line signings of undrafted rookies and veterans that haven't played since 2006.

At the same time, however, our offense can stink, nothing will have changed since last year, so we can still go 8-8. Hell if our defense improved, we could go 9-7. But if our o-line's pass blocking improves just a little bit, if our young wide receivers can step up and get a touchdown between them just every couple games, if our Campbell can come into his own, become an elite QB, and lead this team down the stretch, great things can happen. Just look at the Steelers.

So taking a look at our schedule, I see two outcomes. 8-8, or 11-5. There are some games I'm confident we'll win. Some I'm pretty confident we'll lose. Others are up in the air, depending on those factors improving.

@ Giants, Lose, At the Meadowlands. They lost Burress and Ward, so it may hurt them.
vs Rams, Win, Please no repeat loss to terribleness.
@ Lions, Win, Seriously. We better.
vs Buccaneers, Win, Home field team? We should win at our home.
@ Panthers, Lose, Strong home field team. Ouch this one will sting after 3 straight wins.
vs Chiefs, Win, there can be only one Native American team, and who likes the Chiefs?
vs Eagles, Win, Monday Night Football at home!
Bye
@ Falcons, Lose, Home field team, plus Ryan and Turner should thrive starting a 2nd year.
vs Broncos, Win, Need I explain?
@ Cowboys, Lose, Maybe they win their first game in the new stadium against us.
@ Eagles, Lose, Just to keep it sane I have us splitting in the strong NFC East.
vs Saints, Win, We did it last year, but that was because Campbell DID put up points.
@ Raiders, Win, lol.
vs Giants, Win, Monday Night Football at home!
vs Cowboys, Win, Sunday Night Football at home!
@ Chargers, Win, good chance Chargers will be ahead in their division and resting starters and also a good chance we will be fighting for a playoff spot. Plus I'm probably visiting my sister in San Diego to see this game. :)

So these put us at 11-5. There are a few critical games I have as wins that could be close. The Saints game is one, that explosive offense is straight up scary. They could just straight up blow us up if their o-line can hold, but if Orakpo has a Brees Buffet in the Backfield then we could dominate them. Lots of variance in this one. The Chargers game *could* be interesting, it came to week 17 for them last year, but I doubt it will again. They got jipped twice last year and should have finished 10-6, and that was when Denver had Cutler. Besides that the NFC East games are critical like always. If any team sweeps us in the divison, we'll be hard pressed to fight back against the tide.

Thing is we actually have a decently strong team, but we're up against a sickly soft schedule. Sure we're in the NFC East and play the NFC South which did well last year, but we finished 4th in our division and we play the AFC West. Rams, Lions, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders. If we don't win all 5 of those, we shouldn't make it to the Super Bowl. If we're consistent, those tough games should be the close ones, not the gimmes.

Let's just say my hope is floating in a pool of hog wash. Cautious optimism. If not this year, our offense should improve drastically next year.

New jersey for the season?

2009-04-28T21:18:00.000-07:00

No I'm not moving to the tri-state area.

My plan for this season was to get a nice new Redskins jersey. I have two 'skins hats, a red and a white. Obviously the red one goes with my burgundy Portis jersey:

but the white one doesn't have anything to go with! Clearly, I need a white jersey to go with this hat.
+ ??????? :(

As much as I love Cooley and Moss, everyone has their jerseys. I like being different, so I was entertaining the idea of a less worn classic player, someone like Doug Williams, John Riggins, maybe even one of the Hogs. It helps that I have all three Redskins Super Bowl wins on my PC to watch as I please and so I was especially enamored with Riggin's 4th quarter 10 minutes left, 4th and inches breakaway 43 yard go-ahead touchdown run in SB XVII.

Then came the draft. Orakpo. Is. Beast.
Take the Balrog from Lord of the Rings, the Incredible Hulk, and Godzilla, lock them up in a cage, put them all on steroids, get them drunk, and tell them both of the other two are sleeping with each of their wives, and that's about how much rage and fury this guy exudes on the turf. I am very seriously entertaining the idea of getting an Orakpo jersey. I think it would be pretty cool to have a superstar's jersey from day 1, especially one that annihilates quarterbacks for us. Defensive Rookie of the Year.

I'm pretty selective of who I get a jersey for. They need to satisfy some requirements, personality, integrity, skill, and longevity. I selected Portis for my first one because he has a personality absolutely, yes sometimes it makes him come off as cocky and disrespectful, but it's because of his passion and care for the team. Still, some deny him having integrity (my roommate doesn't like him). You can't deny his honesty. When he thinks a "genius" messed up for putting him in on neither 2nd and goal nor 3rd and goal and the guy that did get the ball fumbles into the endzone, he says so. Some might not like the way he expresses himself, but he means what he says and he stands by it. Skill? Few would argue that he's not a fantastic athlete. He came from Denver as a speed rusher with breakaway speed, but he adjusted and fit himself into the nose-down grinding trench rushing. He's not a huge guy but he will plow into defenders, jump over them, or whatever it takes. When he does get to the outside or finds a nice seam between blocks WHOA he can run. Oh and he's completed 60% of his passes for TDs in his career with a 130.8 passer rating! Yes 3 of 5 passes for 3 TDs! Holy mackerel! As for longevity, I cannot imagine that he will rush for anyone else the rest of his career considering the passion and love for the team that he has. He is a Redskin. Personality, integrity, skill, and longevity.

So do not take it lightly that I wish to purchase an Orakpo jersey for this upcoming season. From the interviews I've seen from him, he is an honest, hard working individual with a true love for the game. His jolly temperament will fit right in on the Redskins. He is a beast pass rusher and will definitely add to this team with Haynesworth taking double teams in the middle. While it is always possible he'll be traded or sign some other contract down the road, once a Redskin, always a Redskin, just ask Dockery. Plus Orakpo's high school team was called the Redskins and modeled after our beloved team. I think he's here to stay.

Just to reiterate:
+ + + =

Championship.

2009 NFL Lines for Wins

2009-04-05T23:31:00.001-07:00

My roommate and I got to talking about Cutler & the Bears since he's a Green Bay fan, I asked him how he thought it would affect the NFC North. This led into a full on discussion on how many wins each team in the NFL would get, and this being Las Vegas we decided to record our guesses for the lines, of course we will compare them to the official lines when they get published after the draft.

Actually I think my guesses were a combination of lines and how I thought (or hoped) teams would actually do, for instance I'm positive the line for the Raiders won't be at 1 win, but I think they are just plain awful and undeserving of much credit. Another example of course the Redskins I overestimated because I think 11 wins is very possible with our team, but that's probably the higher end. We did this in the kitchen with no references near us so I added in the 2008 wins afterwards, we pretty much knew most of them regardless. Some we didn't pay attention to in the regular season, so I was unaware the Raiders had 2.5x more wins (at 5) than the Rams (at 2). Wow the Lambs beat the Redskins and Cowboys, epic fail NFC East.

Most of our numbers were pretty close to each other, within 1.5 wins mostly with only 4 differences of more than 2.
Bengals 5
Raiders 3
Giants 3
Rams 2.5
In every one of these instances I chose the lower number.

At 16 games a week for 16 weeks there will be 256 wins. My column, unknowingly I swear, adds up to 256.5 wins, my roommate's at 258.5. If you're wondering 2008's results add up to 255.

Redskins in the Draft

2009-04-04T19:23:00.000-07:00

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com published a team-by-team analysis of draft needs this year, strangely enough he brought up five positions and we happen to have five picks.

Defensive end
Andre Carter is our main starter here and our strongest pass rusher, but even he fizzled last year with nobody else to help him out. He's entering his 9th season in the NFL and still has some years left. Phillip Daniels and Renaldo Wynn are both entering their 13th seasons, and neither has really been a fantastic pass rusher, though Phillip Daniels averages 5 a year. He's coming off a season ending injury from day one of last year's training camp. When in tervi ewed for his re-signing he said he feels great and works out, but I'll reserve judgement on that until I see him racking up sacks on the field. I think this position is fine for this year, we have some good depth and a couple of young guys like 2008 draft pick Rob Jackson. Still, it is a position that will need to be addressed soon because of the aging core.

Right Tackle
Our whole O-line was in trouble in the second half of last season due to injuries and age. Chris Samuels (9 years) played at tackle despite problems with his knee, Jon Jansen (10 years) was in and out and competed with 2nd year man Stephon Heyer. Heyer made some costly mistakes due to inexperience. At guard former 3rd round Redskins draft pick Derrick Dockery (6 years) rejoined the team this offseason, and Randy Thomas (10 years) will start opposite him despite having some knee trouble last year. Center Casey Rabach typically does a good job aside from bad timing on some penalties last year. We will definitely need some new young blood in here at both tackle positions, but the rest of the O-line is fine as long as they stay healthy. Typically our line is better at rush blocking than pass protection, which is why Portis had such a great year but Campbell saw the last eight games from a lying down position.

Linebacker
Man I am just salivating over those 3 USC linebackers. Rey Maualuga is a fantastic pass rusher, but he plays MLB where our field general London Fletcher sits right now. Maybe he could eventually take over for Fletcher but we need immediate help at OLB.

Wide receiver
This is the first spot I outright disagree with Pat Kirwan, I don't think we should spend our precious draft picks on receivers when our top 3 picks last year were 2 WRs and 1 TE. I'm not concerned that Kelly and Thomas didn't produce much, very few receivers do a great deal their rookie year and Kelly was sidelined most of the season with injury. As long as they improve their route running and develop into the nice tall end-zone threats we need them to be they should do fine.

Cornerback
Losing Shawn Springs stung, don't get me wrong, but I don't think we need to draft a corner. We still have some great young players looking to get on the team in Byron Westbrook on the practice squad and Justin Tryon from the 2008 NFL Draft, and both of them have special teams experience to double as a kick returner alongside Rock Cartwright.

It can be argued from dawn to dusk what we should do with our 5 draft picks this year, but easily the biggest problem is that we only have 5 picks to begin with. Dan Snyder needs to learn how to hoard picks and get value from trades. It is inevitable that some draft picks will be busts and some will be great, but the more of those picks you get the more likely you are to find those great players when they're young and get maximum value from them.

Byron Leftwich in Redskins Park

2009-04-04T12:48:00.000-07:00

It's been only a couple days and already we're busy again shopping for a quarterback. Jason's starting job is still secure, now we're just looking to save some money. As our backup we have had Todd Collins serving, and in 2007 he stepped in like he belonged when Jason was hurt, leading the Redskins to four straight wins and a wildcard playoff berth. So why are we trying to replace him as our backup?

When he stepped in he had studied the system and plays so religiously that he knew he could perform. Even without starting for a decade, Trent Green was impressed with his former backup from their Kansas City days. "His continual and unending preparation was amazing." Collins has a great work ethic and a keen mind, but he's now in a new system just as much as everyone else. The advantage that comes with being a veteran is lessened for this 38 year old 11th year player.

Leftwich is only 29 after 6 seasons, so the move would save money if we release Collins. Their statistics are very similar across the board, we would be getting about the same player with relatively the same amount of experience in this west coast system. The big difference is that Leftwich is fairly large at 250 lbs. and not very mobile. This may prove to be a problem if our offensive line does not improve.

There is also an intangible when it comes to competition. I believe that Todd is a bit more content with where he is on the team. He's ok with just being a backup, that's where he's been for a long time. Byron on the other hand does not want to be on backup duty until he retires. He has said in the past he wants to be a starter. Even if we say to Jason "You're the starter." Leftwich will still be in the back of his mind. He knows that someone is waiting right behind him ready for his chance to shine.

This move seems uncharacteristically good for the Redskins to pull off. Between Jason being in a contract year and this competition coming, I think it'll light a fire under our starter and force him to put up some numbers. He might be left on the wayside and with backup duty for the rest of his career otherwise. I'm more excited than ever to see what happens this season.

Why Cutler Didn't Land in Washington

2009-04-02T23:33:00.000-07:00

Or How I Convinced Dan Snyder Not To Trade Away Three Draft Picks

Stolen from the personal diary of Jim Zorn... but probably not.

Dear Diary,

Rumors are fun. Many times they aren't true, but they are true often enough to make everyone pause and give serious consideration to some improbable situations. Is it possible Josh McDaniels is trying to trade Cutler? No, he will definitely be our starter opening day. Just a few weeks after that, Cutler self-fulfilled his prophecy and the Broncos offered Cutler to the sacrificial trading block.

So when Danny came to me to let me know he was about to trade away my poster child of quarterback potential, I had to come up with some good reasons why he shouldn't.

I took a look at both boys' numbers.
TDs against Dallas:
Cutler: 1 ... in preseason
Campbell: 5
Not so good for Jay so far! Let's continue:

Cutler	Year	Comp%	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Sack	Rate
	2006	59.1	27.4	1001	7.3	200.2	9	6.6	5	3.6	13	88.5
	2007	63.6	29.2	3497	7.5	218.6	20	4.3	14	3.0	27	88.1
	2008	62.3	38.5	4526	7.3	282.9	25	4.1	18	2.9	11	86.0

Campbell	Year	Comp%	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Sck	Rate
	2006	53.1	29.6	1297	6.3	185.3	10	4.8	6	2.9	7	76.5
	2007	60.0	32.1	2700	6.5	207.7	12	2.9	11	2.6	21	77.6
	2008	62.3	31.6	3245	6.4	202.8	13	2.6	6	1.2	38	84.3

Both had an incomplete 2006 season, Jason played 7 games and Jay played 5. In '07 and '08 both players played every game they were not injured. I'll start off with Danny's new hopeful franchise QB, Jay Cutler.

Cutler, The Good: Broke out and had his biggest stat jump going into '07. Had a Pro Bowl caliber '08 with the golden star atop his resume, standing alone above the AFC with 4526 passing yards and 3rd in the AFC with 25 passing TDs. You'll get your offensive worth from this guy. Not listed in the stats above, fumbles went:
8 fum 2 lost in '06
11 fum 4 lost in '07
5 fum 2 lost '08
His interceptions per attempt also went down, so his ball security has gotten quite good.

Cutler, The Bad: Most of his passing stats actually declined from '07 to '08. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, TDs per attempt, and thus passer rating all went down, not much but worse is still worse than better. You see a big jump in yards per game, but at very close to the same amount as his attempts per game. Denver's 30th ranked defense hemorrhaged points, so his team had to abandon a rush offense tied for an NFL 2nd best yards per carry, vaulting Cutler to 2nd in pass attempts in the league, and also 2nd in interceptions. He aired it out to try to put extra points on the board to catch up. He's used to the gunslinger mentality now. How would this attitude fit with the 6th ranked defense and 8th ranked rushing offense? Will our defense be on the field more and get scored on more, forcing us to abandon our rushing to air it out and get intercepted more? I don't want to find out.

Jason Campbell, The Good: Did you see his interview about the rumor of his trade? Opposite of Cutler, this kid has ice in his veins, he's the leader of this team and he knows it. For stats, he has consistently improved his completion percentage and interceptions per attempt every year in different offensive systems while maintaining a decent yards per attempt, putting his 2008 passer rating just shy of Cutler's. 2nd least interceptions in the league in '08 with 6, 2nd only to Seneca Wallace's 3 who played in 10 games with 242 attempts vs Campbell's 506. Oh and 4 of Campbell's 6 interceptions were in 2 games to the 1st and 2nd ranked defenses in the NFL. Cutler was intercepted 3 times by Kansas City's 31st ranked D in 2 games. JC had one lost fumble last year. Cutler's ball security is good, Campbell's is ridiculously exceptional, even though he was sacked 38 times.

and that brings me to Jason Campbell, The Bad: He was sacked 38 times. Our O-line was banged up and could not protect him, so I'll go with not his fault, he makes up for it with low turnovers. Yards per attempt are mediocre at 24th in the league, coincidentally tied with the QB for the 13-3 Titans and the guy who just got traded for Cutler, Kyle Orton. I'm going to go with awful on TD percentage, 21st in the league for TD passes, he was shown up by 2 rookies and (almost) 15 non-rookies making their first NFL starts, including the guy who Cutler was mad he almost got traded for to begin with!

Conclusion: Cutler has a slight edge on Campbell. Cutler gets more yards and more TDs, but Campbell will not give up the ball. The edge is not nearly large enough to make it worthwhile to pursue trades for Jay Cutler. Cutler's numbers this year are about the best they're going to get, and they really weren't that great given he had great receivers and was given more reps than normal. In our system he may in time exceed Jason's output here, but we would be giving up draft picks for a step backwards in learning.

Oh you should have seen that PowerPoint presentation I made for Mr. Snyder, you would love it. I especially liked the dissolve transitions, oh those are just the best. Thankfully he got the message and didn't give up two first round picks and a third round pick to get a marginal improvement. Of course it probably helps that I tell JC17 every week that he's my starter while Josh McDaniels works to alienate all the parts of his team that already work.

Time to get back to throwing random things at Colt and Jason!

Sincerely,
Jimmy